Many traders are presently viewing bitcoin via an end-of-cycle lens, suggesting that This autumn may mark the shut of the present market cycle. Nonetheless, two key metrics level to the chance that the bull market may very well be in its early levels.
Glassnode information reveals that the 200-week shifting common (200WMA), which smooths bitcoin’s worth over a long-term horizon and has traditionally solely trended upwards, has simply breached $53,000.
In the meantime, the realized worth, the common worth at which all bitcoin in circulation final moved onchain, has simply risen above the 200-WMA at $54,000.
Wanting again at earlier cycles, we see a constant sample. In bull markets, the realized worth tends to remain above the 200-WMA, whereas in bear markets, the alternative happens.
For instance, within the 2017 and 2021 bull markets, the realized worth steadily climbed greater and widened its hole above the 200-WMA, earlier than ultimately collapsing under it and signaling the beginning of the bear markets.
Whereas, throughout the downturn of 2022, the realized worth fell under the 200-WMA, it has solely not too long ago moved above it. Traditionally, as soon as the realized worth stays above this long-term shifting common, bitcoin has tended to push greater because the bull market progresses.
